论文标题
COVID-19的隔离区隔离100天后，死亡人数已掩盖100天
Excess deaths hidden 100 days after the quarantine in Peru by COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
目的：估计秘鲁非暴力死亡率中的共同死亡导致的过剩死亡，以控制隔离的影响。方法：使用国家死亡信息系统和秘鲁卫生部的官方公共信息对秘鲁部门的纵向数据进行分析。分析是在2018年1月1日至2020年6月23日（隔离100天）之间进行的。已经使用了每日居民的每日死亡率。用隔离的日子隔离到了Covid-19的累积案例数量来估计隔离撞击的日子。为案例建立了三个限制：小于1、10和100例。结果：在秘鲁，在隔离的天数和没有COVID -19案件的情况下，每天的每日死亡率下降了-1.89（95％CI：-2.70; -1.07）。当将该结果与非暴力死亡总数进行比较时，隔离的前100天的过剩死亡为36,230。该估计是2019年的数据，是Covid-19的估算值的1.12倍，是死亡人士的4.2倍。结论：隔离减少了非暴力死亡；但是，作为大流行的直接或间接原因，它们被增加所掩盖。因此，当前死亡人数与过去几年之间的差异低估了实际的死亡人数过高。
Objective: To make an estimate of the excess deaths caused by COVID-19 in the non-violent mortality of Peru, controlling for the effect of quarantine. Methods: Analysis of longitudinal data from the departments of Peru using official public information from the National Death Information System and the Ministry of Health of Peru. The analysis is performed between January 1, 2018 and June 23, 2020 (100 days of quarantine). The daily death rate per million inhabitants has been used. The days in which the departments were quarantined with a limit number of accumulated cases of COVID-19 were used to estimate the quarantine impact. Three limits were established for cases: less than 1, 10 and 100 cases. Result: In Peru, the daily death rate per million inhabitants decreased by -1.89 (95% CI: -2.70; -1.07) on quarantine days and without COVID-19 cases. When comparing this result with the total number of non-violent deaths, the excess deaths during the first 100 days of quarantine is 36,230. This estimate is 1.12 times the estimate with data from 2019 and 4.2 times the deaths officers by COVID-19. Conclusion: Quarantine reduced nonviolent deaths; however, they are overshadowed by the increase as a direct or indirect cause of the pandemic. Therefore, the difference between the number of current deaths and that of past years underestimates the real excess of deaths.
