论文标题

使用Lévy流程清算进行风险建模

Risk Modelling on Liquidations with Lévy Processes

论文作者

Zhang, Aili, Chen, Ping, Li, Shuanming, Wang, Wenyuan

论文摘要

自从废墟理论的学术世界将保险公司的破产定义为其盈余低于零以来的破产,已经数十年了。但是,这种简化需要仔细的适应来模仿现实世界清算过程。受Broadie等人的启发。 (2007)和Li等。 (2020年),本文使用三级级别模型来描述保险公司破产的财务压力。保险公司的财务状况分为偿付能力,无力偿债和清算三个州,在该州,保险公司在溶剂和无力偿债状态下的盈余过程以两个频谱负面的莱维流程进行建模,这些流程已被视为对保险风险进行建模的好候选人。我们在这个三个屏障模型中对清算时间毁灭的时间进行了严格的定义。通过在波动理论中采用偏移的技术,我们研究清算时间的联合分布,清算时的盈余以及盈余的历史高位直至清算,这将已知的结果推广到Gerber和Shiu的经典预期折现罚款功能(1998年)。结果在量表函数和与两个基本莱维过程相关的levy三胞胎方面具有半明确的表达式。还研究了两个基础lévy过程相互重合的特殊情况,在此,我们的结果仅通过比例函数紧凑。相应的结果与Landriault等人(或没有)较低障碍的现有文献一致。 (2014),Baurdoux等。 (2016年)以及Frostig和Keren-Pinhasik(2019)。此外,还提供了数值示例,以说明清算废墟的基本特征。

It has been decades since the academic world of ruin theory defined the insolvency of an insurance company as the time when its surplus falls below zero. This simplification, however, needs careful adaptions to imitate the real-world liquidation process. Inspired by Broadie et al. (2007) and Li et al. (2020), this paper uses a three-barrier model to describe the financial stress towards bankruptcy of an insurance company. The financial status of the insurer is divided into solvent, insolvent and liquidated three states, where the insurer's surplus process at the state of solvent and insolvent is modelled by two spectrally negative Lévy processes, which have been taken as good candidates to model insurance risks. We provide a rigorous definition of the time of liquidation ruin in this three-barrier model. By adopting the techniques of excursions in the fluctuation theory, we study the joint distribution of the time of liquidation, the surplus at liquidation and the historical high of the surplus until liquidation, which generalizes the known results on the classical expected discounted penalty function in Gerber and Shiu (1998). The results have semi-explicit expressions in terms of the scale functions and the Lévy triplets associated with the two underlying Lévy processes. The special case when the two underlying Lévy processes coincide with each other is also studied, where our results are expressed compactly via only the scale functions. The corresponding results have good consistency with the existing literatures on Parisian ruin with (or without) a lower barrier in Landriault et al. (2014), Baurdoux et al. (2016) and Frostig and Keren-Pinhasik (2019). Besides, numerical examples are provided to illustrate the underlying features of liquidation ruin.

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