论文标题
支持实时COVID-199医疗管理决策：过渡矩阵模型方法
Supporting Real-Time COVID-19 Medical Management Decisions: The Transition Matrix Model Approach
论文作者
论文摘要
自从中国武汉的Covid-19爆发开始以来，已经提出了许多预测模型来投射冠状病毒感染病例的轨迹。我们提出了一个新的离散时间马尔可夫链transrix模型，该模型直接结合了随机行为，并且从可用数据中直接估算了参数估计。使用中国湖北省（武汉是省会首都）的此类数据，该模型被证明是灵活，健壮和准确的。结果，它已被武汉吉尼丹医院的第一上海援助医疗团队采用，该医院是第一家指定的医院，该医院在世界上聘用了COVID 19患者。该预测已用于准备医务人员，重症监护室（ICU）床，呼吸机和其他重症监护医疗资源，并支持实时医疗管理决策。收集了来自中国前两个月（1月/2月）战斗Covid-19的经验数据，并通过将NPI效率嵌入该模型中来增强模型。我们于3月9日将该模型应用于意大利，韩国和伊朗的预测。后来，我们于3月24日对西班牙，德国，法国，美国进行了预测。再次，该模型表现出色，证明是在中国以外的大多数国家/地区进行的灵活，健壮和准确的。
Since the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China, numerous forecasting models have been proposed to project the trajectory of coronavirus infection cases. We propose a new discrete-time Markov chain transition matrix model that directly incorporates stochastic behavior and for which parameter estimation is straightforward from available data. Using such data from China's Hubei province (for which Wuhan is the provincial capital city), the model is shown to be flexible, robust, and accurate. As a result, it has been adopted by the first Shanghai assistance medical team in Wuhan's Jinyintan Hospital, which was the first designated hospital to take COVID-19 patients in the world. The forecast has been used for preparing medical staff, intensive care unit (ICU) beds, ventilators, and other critical care medical resources and for supporting real-time medical management decisions. Empirical data from China's first two months (January/February) of fighting COVID-19 was collected and used to enhance the model by embedding NPI efficiency into the model. We applied the model to forecast Italy, South Korea, and Iran on March 9. Later we made forecasts for Spain, Germany, France, US on March 24. Again, the model has performed very well, proven to be flexible, robust, and accurate for most of these countries/regions outside China.
