论文标题
人口迁移和标点锁定对传染病的传播的影响
Effect of population migration and punctuated lockdown on the spread of infectious diseases
论文作者
论文摘要
控制传染病的关键措施之一是封锁。一旦经过世界许多地区的锁定阶段，关键问题现在就涉及放松锁定并找到实施进一步封锁的最佳方法（如果需要）控制差距的影响。随着锁定的放松，人们迁移到不同的城市并增强了疾病的传播。这项工作介绍了N城市的人口迁移模型，并应用了两个城市之间的迁移模型。计算繁殖数，并分析迁移率的效果。实现了标点的锁定，以模拟重复锁定的协议，该协议限制了感染的复兴。在一段时间内，观察到具有多个峰值的阻尼振荡行为。
One of the critical measures to control infectious diseases is a lockdown. Once past the lockdown stage in many parts of the world, the crucial question now concerns the effects of relaxing the lockdown and finding the best ways to implement further lockdown(s), if required, to control the spread. With the relaxation of lockdown, people migrate to different cities and enhance the spread of the disease. This work presents the population migration model for n-cities and applies the model for migration between two and three cities. The reproduction number is calculated, and the effect of the migration rate is analyzed. A punctuated lockdown is implemented to simulate a protocol of repeated lockdowns that limits the resurgence of infections. A damped oscillatory behavior is observed with multiple peaks over a period.
