论文标题

降雨现象的替代模型

Surrogate Models for Rainfall Nowcasting

论文作者

Cabrera-Gutiérrez, Naty Citlali, Godé, Hadrien, Jouhaud, Jean-Christophe, Bakkay, Mohamed Chafik, Burdá, Valentin Kivachuk, Dupuy, Florian, Mader, Maud-Alix, Mestre, Olivier, Oller, Guillaume, Serrurier, Mathieu, Zamo, Michaël

论文摘要

在极端事件的情况下,象征(或短期天气预报)尤其重要,因为它有助于防止人类损失。但是,我们的许多活动也取决于天气。因此,Nowcasting已显示在许多不同的域中很有用。当前,法国的立即降雨预测是使用Météo-France开发的Arome-NWC模型计算的,Météo-France是一个复杂的物理模型。 Arome-NWC预测以15分钟的时间间隔存储。但是,对于其他气象应用,需要更高的时间分辨率。复杂的模型计算,例如Arome-NWC,可能非常昂贵且耗时。替代模型旨在产生与使用复杂模型获得的结果,但大大减少了计算时间。构建替代模型只需要使用真实模型进行一些计算。一旦构建了替代模型,就可以快速实现进一步的计算。在这项研究中,我们建议构建替代模型,以使用两种不同的方法立即进行降雨预测:合并正交分解(POD)和Kriging,或将POD和随机森林(RF)结合在一起。我们表明,使用我们的替代模型获得的结果不仅接近Arome-NWC获得的结果,而且还具有较高的时间分辨率(1分钟),计算时间缩短。

Nowcasting (or short-term weather forecasting) is particularly important in the case of extreme events as it helps prevent human losses. Many of our activities, however, also depend on the weather. Therefore, nowcasting has shown to be useful in many different domains. Currently, immediate rainfall forecasts in France are calculated using the Arome-NWC model developed by Météo-France, which is a complex physical model. Arome-NWC forecasts are stored with a 15 minute time interval. A higher time resolution is, however, desirable for other meteorological applications. Complex model calculations, such as Arome-NWC, can be very expensive and time consuming. A surrogate model aims at producing results which are very close to the ones obtained using a complex model, but with largely reduced calculation times. Building a surrogate model requires only a few calculations with the real model. Once the surrogate model is built, further calculations can be quickly realized. In this study, we propose to build surrogate models for immediate rainfall forecasts with two different approaches: combining Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) and Kriging, or combining POD and Random Forest (RF). We show that results obtained with our surrogate models are not only close to the ones obtained by Arome-NWC, but they also have a higher time resolution (1 minute) with a reduced calculation time.

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