论文标题
有效性和遵守社会距离期间的社会距离
Effectiveness and Compliance to Social Distancing During COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
在没有药物干预措施以遏制Covid-19的传播的情况下，各国依靠许多非药物干预措施来抗击大流行的第一波。最普遍的是在家订单，其目标是限制人们之间的身体接触，因此，这将减少产生的继发感染数量。在这项工作中，我们使用一组详细的移动性数据来评估这些干预措施对通过COVID-19相关死亡进行衡量的病毒在美国的传播所产生的影响。为了建立这种影响，我们使用两个时间序列之间的Granger因果关系概念。我们表明，有一个单向格兰格因果关系，从每天在家中度过的时间的中位数到与19例相关死亡的日常数量，滞后为2周。我们进一步分析了人口普查层面上的移动性模式，以确定在遵守和遵守社会距离措施时可能会遇到困难。这些信息很重要，因为因此可以采取旨在帮助这些部分人群的干预措施。
In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions to curb the spread of COVID-19, countries relied on a number of nonpharmaceutical interventions to fight the first wave of the pandemic. The most prevalent one has been stay-at-home orders, whose the goal is to limit the physical contact between people, which consequently will reduce the number of secondary infections generated. In this work, we use a detailed set of mobility data to evaluate the impact that these interventions had on alleviating the spread of the virus in the US as measured through the COVID-19-related deaths. To establish this impact, we use the notion of Granger causality between two time-series. We show that there is a unidirectional Granger causality, from the median percentage of time spent daily at home to the daily number of COVID-19-related deaths with a lag of 2 weeks. We further analyze the mobility patterns at the census block level to identify which parts of the population might encounter difficulties in adhering and complying with social distancing measures. This information is important, since it can consequently drive interventions that aim at helping these parts of the population.
