论文标题
测量宏观经济不确定性：从跨国角度来看不确定性的劳动渠道
Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: The Labor Channel of Uncertainty from a Cross-Country Perspective
论文作者
论文摘要
本文构建了国际上一致的宏观经济不确定性衡量标准。我们的计量经济学框架从从标准化的国民帐户获得的数据中提取了不确定性。将我们的模型应用于第二次世界大战后的实时数据，我们估计了39个国家 /地区的宏观经济不确定性。我们的不确定性数据的跨国维度使我们能够研究不同就业保护立法下的不确定性冲击的影响。我们的经验发现表明，与拥有高就业保护的国家相比，在就业保护范围低的国家中，不确定性冲击的影响更强，更持久。这些经验发现与在不同的射击成本下的理论模型一致。
This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to post-WWII real-time data, we estimate macroeconomic uncertainty for 39 countries. The cross-country dimension of our uncertainty data allows us to study the impact of uncertainty shocks under different employment protection legislation. Our empirical findings suggest that the effects of uncertainty shocks are stronger and more persistent in countries with low employment protection compared to countries with high employment protection. These empirical findings are in line with a theoretical model under varying firing cost.
