论文标题
SARS-COV-2感染后症状和危害疾病的概率
Probability of symptoms and critical disease after SARS-CoV-2 infection
论文作者
论文摘要
我们量化了SARS-COV-2阳性受试者的症状（呼吸或发烧\ GEQ 37.5°C）和关键疾病（需要重症监护或导致死亡的重症监护或导致死亡）的概率。分析了意大利伦巴第检测到的SARS-COV-2指数案例的5,484个接触，并通过鼻拭子和血清学分析确定阳性受试者。在少于60岁的所有感染者中，有73.9％没有出现症状（95％置信区间：71.8-75.9％）。症状的风险随着年龄的增长而增加。 6.6％的60岁以上受试者患有严重疾病，男性的风险明显更高。
We quantified the probability of developing symptoms (respiratory or fever \geq 37.5 °C) and critical disease (requiring intensive care or resulting in death) of SARS-CoV-2 positive subjects. 5,484 contacts of SARS-CoV-2 index cases detected in Lombardy, Italy were analyzed, and positive subjects were ascertained via nasal swabs and serological assays. 73.9% of all infected individuals aged less than 60 years did not develop symptoms (95% confidence interval: 71.8-75.9%). The risk of symptoms increased with age. 6.6% of infected subjects older than 60 years had critical disease, with males at significantly higher risk.
