论文标题
通过各种社会和经济情景建模和控制流行病的传播
Modeling and Controlling the Spread of Epidemic with Various Social and Economic Scenarios
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一个动力学模型来描述流行病的传播。该模型是SIQR(易感性征收的被授予的)和SIRP(易感性感染的已恢复的PATHONEN)模型的扩展,用于描述流行病扩散的各种情况。与基本的SIR模型相比,我们的模型考虑了两种可能的传播传播途径:直接从受感染的隔室到易感隔室,并通过一些中间介质或Fomites间接。传输率是根据所选社交环境中个体之间平均距离的估计,并且个人在这些环境中都留在每个环境中。我们还引入了与每个人的平均金钱或收入相关的集体经济资源,以描述传播过程与受感染者可用的资源之间的社会经济相互作用。流行资源耦合被认为是激活类型的,其恢复率由Arrhenius样法律控制。我们的模型带来了建立各种控制策略以减轻流行作用的优势,并且可以特别适用于建模Covid-19的传播。
We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe various scenarios of epidemic spreading. As compared to the basic SIR model, our model takes into account two possible routes of contagion transmission: direct from the infected compartment to the susceptible compartment and indirect via some intermediate medium or fomites. Transmission rates are estimated in terms of average distances between the individuals in selected social environments and characteristic time spans for which the individuals stay in each of these environments. We also introduce a collective economic resource associated with the average amount of money or income per individual to describe the socioeconomic interplay between the spreading process and the resource available to infected individuals. The epidemic-resource coupling is supposed to be of activation type, with the recovery rate governed by the Arrhenius-like law. Our model brings an advantage of building various control strategies to mitigate the effect of epidemic and can be applied, in particular, to modeling the spread of COVID-19.