论文标题
令人窒息的火灾销售
Suffocating Fire Sales
论文作者
论文摘要
销售是现代金融体系中市场不稳定的主要驱动力之一。由于迭代的不良销售和相关的价格影响,可以通过投资组合重叠引起的网络对某些机构的初始冲击进行大幅度放大。在本文中,我们开发了一个数学框架,使我们能够研究驱动或阻碍苦难传播的中心特征。我们研究了单个系统以及相同的系统的集合,在这些系统中,根据系统的所有定义属性的经验分布来衡量相似性。这种渐近方法确保了统计不确定性和时间波动的极大鲁棒性。出现了对小冲击的弹性系统的表征,我们提供了监管机构可能会利用以评估金融体系稳定性的标准。 我们说明了在资本要求的背景下,这些标准在某些示例性配置中的应用,并测试了通过Monte Carlo Simulations对中等大小系统的结果的适用性。
Fire sales are among the major drivers of market instability in modern financial systems. Due to iterated distressed selling and the associated price impact, initial shocks to some institutions can be amplified dramatically through the network induced by portfolio overlaps. In this paper, we develop a mathematical framework that allows us to investigate central characteristics that drive or hinder the propagation of distress. We investigate single systems as well as ensembles of systems that are alike, where similarity is measured in terms of the empirical distribution of all defining properties of a system. This asymptotic approach ensures a great deal of robustness to statistical uncertainty and temporal fluctuations. A characterization of those systems that are resilient to small shocks emerges, and we provide criteria that regulators might exploit in order to assess the stability of a financial system. We illustrate the application of these criteria for some exemplary configurations in the context of capital requirements and test the applicability of our results for systems of moderate size by Monte Carlo simulations.