论文标题
基于运营的年度能源生产不确定性：其组件实际上是不相关的吗？
Operational-Based Annual Energy Production Uncertainty: Are its Components Actually Uncorrelated?
论文作者
论文摘要
从风能工厂的年度能源生产（AEP）计算 - 基于预构建或运营数据，对风电厂的金融交易至关重要。一种流行的行业实践是假设AEP计算中不同的不确定性组件是不相关的，因此可以将其作为其正方形的总和。我们通过对美国470多个风电厂进行操作AEP估计，主要在简单的地形上，评估了该假设对基于操作的不确定性的实际有效性。我们采用蒙特卡洛方法来量化五类不确定性：收入计数据，风速数据，回归关系，长期校正和未来的年际变化。我们通过比较所有470家风电厂的结果来确定类别之间的相关性。我们观察到年际变异性与线性化的长期校正之间存在正相关。风资源际变化与线性回归之间的负相关；参考风速不确定性和线性回归之间存在正相关。然后，我们通过省略和考虑不确定性组件之间的相关性计算得出的总操作AEP不确定性值。我们量化了忽略这些相关性会导致总AEP不确定性的低估为0.1％，而对于特定地点来说，低至0.5％。尽管这些并不是很大的增加，但这些仍会影响风电厂的融资率。此外，我们预计在复杂地形中的风电厂的这些价值会增加。基于这些结果，我们得出结论，在计算总AEP不确定性时，应考虑确定的不确定性组件之间的相关性。
Calculations of annual energy production (AEP) from a wind power plant-whether based on preconstruction or operational data-are critical for wind plant financial transactions. A popular industry practice is to assume that different uncertainty components within an AEP calculation are uncorrelated and can therefore be combined as the sum of their squares. We assess the practical validity of this assumption for operational-based uncertainty, by performing operational AEP estimates for more than 470 wind plants in the United States, mostly in simple terrain. We apply a Monte Carlo approach to quantify uncertainty in five categories: revenue meter data, wind speed data, regression relationship, long-term correction, and future interannual variability. We identify correlations between categories by comparing the results across all 470 wind plants. We observe a positive correlation between interannual variability and the linearized long-term correction; a negative correlation between wind resource interannual variability and linear regression; and a positive correlation between reference wind speed uncertainty and linear regression. Then, we contrast total operational AEP uncertainty values calculated by omitting and considering the correlations between the uncertainty components. We quantify that ignoring these correlations leads to an underestimation of total AEP uncertainty of, on average, 0.1%, and as large as 0.5% for specific sites. Although these are not large increases, these would still impact wind plant financing rates; further, we expect these values to increase for wind plants in complex terrain. Based on these results, we conclude that correlations between the identified uncertainty components should be considered when computing the total AEP uncertainty.
