论文标题
确定和估计传染病的最佳检疫持续时间，并应用于COVID-19的数据分析
Determination and estimation of optimal quarantine duration for infectious diseases with application to data analysis of COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
隔离措施是在传染病爆发期间常用的非药物干预措施。实施隔离措施的一个关键问题是确定隔离的持续时间。在本文中，制定了具有最佳隔离持续时间的政策。该政策建议每个具有不同特征的人的隔离持续时间不同。从某种意义上说，该政策是最佳的，它最大程度地减少了未感染的人的平均隔离持续时间，其限制是，受感染者的症状呈现概率达到了接近1的给定值。隔离持续时间的最佳解决方案是通过某些统计方法来估算的，并通过某些统计方法估算了用于分析COVID-19数据的应用。
Quarantine measure is a commonly used non-pharmaceutical intervention during the outbreak of infectious diseases. A key problem for implementing quarantine measure is to determine the duration of quarantine. In this paper, a policy with optimal quarantine duration is developed. The policy suggests different quarantine durations for every individual with different characteristic. The policy is optimal in the sense that it minimizes the average quarantine duration of uninfected people with the constraint that the probability of symptom presentation for infected people attains the given value closing to 1. The optimal solution for the quarantine duration is obtained and estimated by some statistic methods with application to analyzing COVID-19 data.
