论文标题
在意大利共同19期间，人类流动性与病毒传播性之间的关系
The relationship between human mobility and viral transmissibility during the COVID-19 epidemics in Italy
论文作者
论文摘要
在2020年，受共同-19大流行影响的国家实施了各种非药物干预措施，以对比病毒的传播及其对其医疗保健系统和经济体的影响。使用意大利数据在不同的地理量表上，我们研究了人类流动性之间的关系，该数据涵盖了人口对不断变化状况的反应的许多方面，以及COVID-19的传播。从2月到2020年9月，我们发现移动性流量减少与净繁殖数量之间的关系有惊人的关系。我们发现，关闭移动性并将净繁殖号码的净阈值低于1的临界阈值所需的时间约为一周。此外，我们观察到在锁定引起的流动流量下降之前，花费的天数与每100K居民的感染总数下降之前的阈值之间存在牢固的关系。随着时间的推移，估计流动性流动对净繁殖数的统计效应，我们记录了2周的滞后阳性关联，3月和4月的稳定性，较弱，但在6月仍然很重要。我们的研究证明了大型移动性数据在进行过程中监测流行病的价值。
In 2020, countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions to contrast the spread of the virus and its impact on their healthcare systems and economies. Using Italian data at different geographic scales, we investigate the relationship between human mobility, which subsumes many facets of the population's response to the changing situation, and the spread of COVID-19. Leveraging mobile phone data from February through September 2020, we find a striking relationship between the decrease in mobility flows and the net reproduction number. We find that the time needed to switch off mobility and bring the net reproduction number below the critical threshold of 1 is about one week. Moreover, we observe a strong relationship between the number of days spent above such threshold before the lockdown-induced drop in mobility flows and the total number of infections per 100k inhabitants. Estimating the statistical effect of mobility flows on the net reproduction number over time, we document a 2-week lag positive association, strong in March and April, and weaker but still significant in June. Our study demonstrates the value of big mobility data to monitor the epidemic and inform control interventions during its unfolding.
