论文标题
在人类中SARS-COV-2的宿主动力学中：建模免疫反应和抗病毒治疗
Within host dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in humans: Modeling immune responses and antiviral treatments
论文作者
论文摘要
2019年12月，一种新发现的SARS-COV-2病毒来自中国，并在全球范围内传播为大流行。在没有预防医学或准备使用疫苗的情况下，数学模型可以提供有关传播模式和药物开发目标的有用科学见解。在这项研究中，我们提出了一个固有和适应性免疫反应的SARS-COV-2感染的宿主内数学模型。我们分析了所提出模型的平衡点，并获得基本繁殖数的表达。然后，我们从数字上显示了跨临界分叉的存在。提出的模型被校准为两名COVID-19患者的实际病毒负荷数据。使用估计的参数，我们就病毒载荷的峰进行全局灵敏度分析。最后，我们研究了抗病毒药和疫苗接种对SARS-COV-2感染动力学的疗效。我们的结果表明，通过感染细胞阻断病毒的产生比降低健康细胞的感染率降低了病毒负荷。还发现疫苗接种有用，但在疫苗发育阶段，可以阻止感染细胞的病毒产生，以用于抗病毒药物发育。
In December 2019, a newly discovered SARS-CoV-2 virus was emerged from China and propagated worldwide as a pandemic. In the absence of preventive medicine or a ready to use vaccine, mathematical models can provide useful scientific insights about transmission patterns and targets for drug development. In this study, we propose a within-host mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 infection considering innate and adaptive immune responses. We analyze the equilibrium points of the proposed model and obtain an expression of the basic reproduction number. We then numerically show the existence of a transcritical bifurcation. The proposed model is calibrated to real viral load data of two COVID-19 patients. Using the estimated parameters, we perform global sensitivity analysis with respect to the peak of viral load. Finally, we study the efficacy of antiviral drugs and vaccination on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our results suggest that blocking the production of the virus by infected cells decreases the viral load more than reducing the infection rate of healthy cells. Vaccination is also found useful but during the vaccine development phase, blocking virus production from infected cells can be targeted for antiviral drug development.
