论文标题

死亡率遏制与经济学开放:SEIARD模型中的最佳政策

Mortality containment vs. economics opening: optimal policies in a SEIARD model

论文作者

Aspri, Andrea, Beretta, Elena, Gandolfi, Alberto, Wasmer, Etienne

论文摘要

我们适应了一个无症状人群和称为Seaird的无症状人群和共证死亡的Seird差异模型,以模拟Covid-19的演变,并添加了影响病毒和GDP扩散的控制函数,具有所有直接和间接遏制策略的扩散;为了建模可行性,假定控件是满足其他约束的零件线性函数。我们描述了感染和经济的联合动态,并讨论生产与死亡之间的权衡。特别是,我们仔细研究了最佳政策响应及其独特性的条件。独特性在于人类生命和GDP的统计价值之间的边际替代率。我们展示了一个具有相转换的示例:高于一定阈值,有一个独特的最佳遏制策略;在阈值以下,弃权最佳。在阈值本身,有两个最佳政策。然后,我们探索和评估取决于少数参数的各种控制策略的各种概况。

We adapt a SEIRD differential model with asymptomatic population and Covid deaths, which we call SEAIRD, to simulate the evolution of COVID-19, and add a control function affecting both the diffusion of the virus and GDP, featuring all direct and indirect containment policies; to model feasibility, the control is assumed to be a piece-wise linear function satisfying additional constraints. We describe the joint dynamics of infection and the economy and discuss the trade-off between production and fatalities. In particular, we carefully study the conditions for the existence of the optimal policy response and its uniqueness. Uniqueness crucially depends on the marginal rate of substitution between the statistical value of a human life and GDP; we show an example with a phase transition: above a certain threshold, there is a unique optimal containment policy; below the threshold, it is optimal to abstain from any containment; and at the threshold itself there are two optimal policies. We then explore and evaluate various profiles of various control policies dependent on a small number of parameters.

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