论文标题
建模非平稳的风暴严重程度:两种方法的故事
Modelling non-stationary extremes of storm severity: a tale of two approaches
论文作者
论文摘要
从参数的角度研究和评估了适应非平稳性的极值模型。尽管这些模型可以灵活,从某种意义上说,可以探索许多参数化,但它们假定渐近分布是从尾部观察到的适当拟合。本文通过迭代参数和半参数方法在非平稳性极端事件进行建模提供了整体方法,从而提供了一种自动程序,以估算有关循环数据中周期性协变量的移动阈值。通过利用每种方法的优势和减轻陷阱,提供了一个统一的框架,作为估算极端分位数的骨干,包括$ t $ y-year-year级别和有限的右端点,该端口旨在优化偏见变化权衡权衡。为此,引入了与峰超过阈值相关的两个调谐参数。我们提供了将方法应用于北海记录的后播峰值波峰高度的方向建模的指导。尽管对极端数据统计数据适应循环数据的理论基础是详细介绍其渐近性质的衍生作用,但其衍生物却超出了本文的范围。实现了一种引导技术,以获取方向驱动的置信范围,以说明相关边界限制,对初始点的敏感性最小。这为方向极端分析的其他应用提供了一个模板。
Models for extreme values accommodating non-stationarity have been amply studied and evaluated from a parametric perspective. Whilst these models are flexible, in the sense that many parametrizations can be explored, they assume an asymptotic distribution as the proper fit to observations from the tail. This paper provides a holistic approach to the modelling of non-stationary extreme events by iterating between parametric and semi-parametric approaches, thus providing an automatic procedure to estimate a moving threshold with respect to a periodic covariate in circular data. By exploiting advantages and mitigating pitfalls of each approach, a unified framework is provided as the backbone for estimating extreme quantiles, including that of the $T$-year level and finite right endpoint, which seeks to optimize bias-variance trade-off. To this end, two tuning parameters related to the spread of peaks over threshold are introduced. We provide guidance for applying the methodology to the directional modelling of hindcast storm peak significant wave heights recorded in the North Sea. Although the theoretical underpinning for adaptation of well-known estimators in statistics of extremes to circular data is given in some detail, the derivation of their asymptotic properties lays beyond the scope of this paper. A bootstrap technique is implemented for obtaining direction-driven confidence bounds in such a way as to account for the relevant boundary restrictions with minimal sensitivity to initial point. This provides a template for other applications where the analysis of directional extremes is of importance.