论文标题
重复接触和疾病的传播：具有隔室溶液的代理模型
Repeat Contacts and the Spread of Disease: An Agent Model with Compartmental Solution
论文作者
论文摘要
使用从物理模型中得出的新型遭遇的概率，我们增强了疾病扩散的SIR隔间模型。具有相同初始轨迹和相同$ R_0 $值的场景可以大大差异，具体取决于我们熟人圈子变得陈旧的速度 - 导致最终案例计数的数量级差异。动量效应是由于感染以来的平均变化而产生的，这会反馈到新的感染率和爆发后期阶段的更快下降。爆发的快速灭绝可能会在早期阶段发生，但是一旦错过了这种机会，效果就会减少，然后，只有牛群的免疫力才能提供帮助。
Using a probability of novel encounter derived from a physical model, we augment the SIR compartmental model for disease spread. Scenarios with the same initial trajectories and identical $R_0$ values can diverge greatly depending on the speed at which our circles of acquaintances grow stale - leading to order of magnitude differences in final case counts. A momentum effect arises from variation in the mean time since infection, and this feeds back into new infection rate and faster decline in the late stages of an outbreak. Rapid extinction of an outbreak can occur in the early stages, but once this opportunity is missed the effect is diminished and then, only herd immunity can help.
