论文标题
关于等级直方图中的垃圾箱数量
On the number of bins in a rank histogram
论文作者
论文摘要
等级直方图是评估气象合奏预测系统可靠性的流行工具。可靠的预测系统会导致均匀的等级直方图，并且偏离均匀性可能表明误解。但是，通过视觉检查等级直方图识别此类偏差的能力至关重要取决于为直方图选择的箱数量。如果选择的垃圾箱太少，则等级直方图可能会错过错误校准。如果选择了太多，即使是完美校准的预测系统也可以产生看起来不均匀的等级直方图。在本文中，我们解决了这一权衡，并提出了一种选择等级直方图的垃圾箱数量的方法。我们方法的目的是选择多个垃圾箱，以便直观决策是否均匀，与正式统计测试尽可能接近。我们的结果表明，通常选择比通常选择合奏尺寸加一个垃圾箱的垃圾箱通常是合适的，尤其是当可进行验证的观测值少时。
Rank histograms are popular tools for assessing the reliability of meteorological ensemble forecast systems. A reliable forecast system leads to a uniform rank histogram, and deviations from uniformity can indicate miscalibrations. However, the ability to identify such deviations by visual inspection of rank histogram plots crucially depends on the number of bins chosen for the histogram. If too few bins are chosen, the rank histogram is likely to miss miscalibrations; if too many are chosen, even perfectly calibrated forecast systems can yield rank histograms that do not appear uniform. In this paper we address this trade-off and propose a method for choosing the number of bins for a rank histogram. The goal of our method is to select a number of bins such that the intuitive decision whether a histogram is uniform or not is as close as possible to a formal statistical test. Our results indicate that it is often appropriate to choose fewer bins than the usual choice of ensemble size plus one, especially when the number of observations available for verification is small.
