论文标题
通过靶向高接触个体来停止SARS-COV-2
Halting SARS-CoV-2 by Targeting High-Contact Individuals
论文作者
论文摘要
网络科学家提出，涉及人与人传播的传染病可以通过针对少数高度联系的个体的干预措施有效地停止。像许多人认为SARS-COV-2是近距离接触的部分传播的病毒可以有效地打击部分传播的病毒吗？有效性在关键上取决于近距离触点数量的高度差异。我们分析了人口调查数据，表明实际上，跨个体的近距离接触的分布的特征是一小部分报告了非常高的频率。令人惊讶的是，我们发现平均接触持续时间在接触次数中大多是不变的，从而增强了集线器的关键性。我们模拟嵌入具有经验观察到的接触频率的网络中的种群。模拟表明，靶向轮毂可牢固地改善遏制。
Network scientists have proposed that infectious diseases involving person-to-person transmission may be effectively halted by targeting interventions at a minority of highly connected individuals. Can this strategy be effective in combating a virus partly transmitted in close-range contact, as many believe SARS-CoV-2 to be? Effectiveness critically depends on high between-person variability in the number of close-range contacts. We analyze population survey data showing that indeed the distribution of close-range contacts across individuals is characterized by a small fraction of individuals reporting very high frequencies. Strikingly, we find that the average duration of contact is mostly invariant in the number of contacts, reinforcing the criticality of hubs. We simulate a population embedded in a network with empirically observed contact frequencies. Simulations show that targeting hubs robustly improves containment.
