论文标题
从观察性和有限的实验数据进行学习调整集
Learning Adjustment Sets from Observational and Limited Experimental Data
论文作者
论文摘要
由于混杂而,并非总是可以从观察数据中估算因果关系。识别一组适当的协变量(调整集)并调整其影响可以消除混杂的偏见;但是,这种集合通常仅在观察数据中无法识别。实验数据没有混淆偏差,但通常在样本量中受到限制,因此可以产生不精确的估计。此外,实验数据通常包括有限的协变量,因此提供了对基础系统因果结构的有限见解。在这项工作中,我们介绍了一种结合大量观察和有限的实验数据的方法,以确定调整集并改善因果效应的估计。该方法通过计算具有观察到的潜在调整人集的先验概率的实验数据的边际可能性来确定调整集(如果可能的话)。通过这种方式,该方法可以仅使用所有观察和实验数据中的条件依赖性和独立性进行推断。我们表明该方法成功地识别了调整集并改善了模拟数据中的因果效应估计,并且与最新的实验和观察数据相比,它有时可以进行其他推断。
Estimating causal effects from observational data is not always possible due to confounding. Identifying a set of appropriate covariates (adjustment set) and adjusting for their influence can remove confounding bias; however, such a set is typically not identifiable from observational data alone. Experimental data do not have confounding bias, but are typically limited in sample size and can therefore yield imprecise estimates. Furthermore, experimental data often include a limited set of covariates, and therefore provide limited insight into the causal structure of the underlying system. In this work we introduce a method that combines large observational and limited experimental data to identify adjustment sets and improve the estimation of causal effects. The method identifies an adjustment set (if possible) by calculating the marginal likelihood for the experimental data given observationally-derived prior probabilities of potential adjustmen sets. In this way, the method can make inferences that are not possible using only the conditional dependencies and independencies in all the observational and experimental data. We show that the method successfully identifies adjustment sets and improves causal effect estimation in simulated data, and it can sometimes make additional inferences when compared to state-of-the-art methods for combining experimental and observational data.