论文标题
1995 - 2018年全球友好和敌对关系网络的全球演变
The 1995-2018 Global Evolution of the Network of Amicable and Hostile Relations Among Nation-States
论文作者
论文摘要
我们借鉴了综合危机预警系统收集的有关数百万国际和地区公共新闻报道的数据，以及该系统指向特定民族国家的方向。我们在特定时间周期内发生的民族国家之间建立了国际友好和敌对关系的网络，以研究此类国际评估网络的全球演变。我们的分析提供了该网络结构演变的证据，以及在1995 - 2018年可用数据中国际评估改变的概率微动力学模型。我们的研究提供了关于结构平衡理论跨学科工作领域的长期辩论的经验发现。同样值得注意的是，我们发现，顺序过渡概率的Frobenius规范的轨迹，该规范控制了国际评估国家之间国际评估的演变，并显着稳定。
We draw on the data collected by the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System on millions of international and regional public news stories, and this system's indicators of the orientation toward a specific nation-state. We construct the networks of international amicable and hostile relations among nation-states that occur in specific time-periods in order to study the global evolution of the network of such international appraisals. Our analysis presents evidence of an evolution of the structure of this network and a model of the probabilistic micro-dynamics of the alterations of international appraisals during the 1995-2018 span of the available data. Our research provides empirical findings on long-standing debates in the interdisciplinary field of work on Structural Balance Theory. Also remarkably, we find that the trajectory of the Frobenius norm of sequential transition probabilities, which govern the evolution of international appraisals among nations, dramatically stabilizes.
