论文标题
未发现案件对跟踪流行病的影响：COVID-19
The impact of undetected cases on tracking epidemics: the case of COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
追踪传染病演变的主要指标之一是繁殖数。该数量通常是使用报道的病例计算的，但忽略了更多的人可能被感染（例如，偶像人）。我们提出了一种统计程序，以量化未检测到的感染病例对确定有效繁殖数的影响。我们的方法是随机，数据驱动的，不依赖于任何隔离室模型。它适用于八个不同国家和所有意大利地区的Covid-19案例，表明未发现病例的效果导致估计有效繁殖数的估计，其有效繁殖数的估计大于仅在报告案例中获得的因素范围为2到十的因素。我们的发现敦促谨慎地决定何时以及如何根据繁殖数量的价值放松遏制度量。
One of the key indicators used in tracking the evolution of an infectious disease isthe reproduction number. This quantity is usually computed using the reportednumber of cases, but ignoring that many more individuals may be infected (e.g.asymptomatics). We propose a statistical procedure to quantify the impact of un-detected infectious cases on the determination of the effective reproduction number. Our approach is stochastic, data-driven and not relying on any compartmentalmodel. It is applied to the COVID-19 case in eight different countries and all Italianregions, showing that the effect of undetected cases leads to estimates of the effective reproduction numbers larger than those obtained only with the reported cases by factors ranging from two to ten. Our findings urge caution about deciding when and how to relax containment measures based on the value of the reproduction number.
