论文标题

对案例交叉设计的正式因果解释

A Formal Causal Interpretation of the Case-Crossover Design

论文作者

Shahn, Zach, Hernan, Miguel A., Robins, James M.

论文摘要

案例交叉设计(Maclure,1991)被广泛用于流行病学和其他领域,以研究瞬时治疗对急性结果的因果关系。但是,其有效性和因果解释仅在非正式条件下才是合理的。在这里,我们首次将设计放在正式的反事实框架中。这样做有助于阐明其假设和解释。特别是,当治疗效果是非无效的时候,我们确定了先前未忽略的偏见,这是由于不同人气时结果的共同原因而引起的。我们通过分析表征了这种偏见的方向和大小,并通过模拟证明了其潜在的重要性。我们还使用对案例分解估计量极限的推导来分析其对治疗效应异质性的敏感性,这违反了有效性的非正式标准之一。对于从业者来说,这项工作的结果是,虽然案例交叉设计对于在存在基线混杂因素的存在下测试因果零假设很有用,但在使用案例 - 分解设计来估算因果关系效果时,应谨慎谨慎。

The case-crossover design (Maclure, 1991) is widely used in epidemiology and other fields to study causal effects of transient treatments on acute outcomes. However, its validity and causal interpretation have only been justified under informal conditions. Here, we place the design in a formal counterfactual framework for the first time. Doing so helps to clarify its assumptions and interpretation. In particular, when the treatment effect is non-null, we identify a previously unnoticed bias arising from common causes of the outcome at different person-times. We analytically characterize the direction and size of this bias and demonstrate its potential importance with a simulation. We also use our derivation of the limit of the case-crossover estimator to analyze its sensitivity to treatment effect heterogeneity, a violation of one of the informal criteria for validity. The upshot of this work for practitioners is that, while the case-crossover design can be useful for testing the causal null hypothesis in the presence of baseline confounders, extra caution is warranted when using the case-crossover design for point estimation of causal effects.

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