论文标题
寻找感染SARS-COV-2的人的策略：在低患病率下优化汇总测试
A strategy for finding people infected with SARS-CoV-2: optimizing pooled testing at low prevalence
论文作者
论文摘要
抑制SARS-COV-2可能需要持续的迅速识别和隔离感染个体。 RT-PCR（逆转录聚合酶链反应）测试是准确但昂贵的，可以定期测试每个单独的昂贵。对于所有国家，尤其是发展中国家，成本都是挑战。可以通过组合样本并分组测试样品来降低成本。我们提出了一种基于HyperCube的几何形状在测试之前对子样本进行分组的算法。在低患病率下，该测试程序在少量测试中唯一地识别受感染的个体。我们讨论最佳群体规模，并解释为什么鉴于疾病的高度感染性，因此首选平行搜索。我们报告了概念验证实验证明，即即使用负样品稀释一百倍，也检测到阳性样品。使用这些方法，质量测试的成本可以降低10倍或更多。如果受感染的人迅速有效地隔离，那么患病率将下降，定期测试所有人的费用也将下降。这种策略为长期消除SARS-COV-2提供了可能的途径。现在，卢旺达正在进行我们方法的现场试验，此处报告了这些方法的初步数据。
Suppressing SARS-CoV-2 will likely require the rapid identification and isolation of infected individuals, on an ongoing basis. RT-PCR (reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction) tests are accurate but costly, making regular testing of every individual expensive. The costs are a challenge for all countries and particularly for developing countries. Cost reductions can be achieved by combining samples and testing them in groups. We propose an algorithm for grouping subsamples, prior to testing, based on the geometry of a hypercube. At low prevalence, this testing procedure uniquely identifies infected individuals in a small number of tests. We discuss the optimal group size and explain why, given the highly infectious nature of the disease, parallel searches are preferred. We report proof of concept experiments in which a positive sample was detected even when diluted a hundred-fold with negative samples. Using these methods, the costs of mass testing could be reduced by a factor of ten to a hundred or more. If infected individuals are quickly and effectively quarantined, the prevalence will fall and so will the costs of regularly testing everyone. Such a strategy provides a possible pathway to the longterm elimination of SARS-CoV-2. Field trials of our approach are now under way in Rwanda and initial data from these are reported here.
