论文标题
病毒动态具有行为反应
Virus Dynamics with Behavioral Responses
论文作者
论文摘要
在Covid-19之类的流行病中，我们研究了行为对疾病患病率的反应时，我们研究了传染性疾病的传播。我们将流行病学模型扩展到包括内源会议率。个人从经济活动中受益，但活动涉及与潜在感染的个体的相互作用。主要重点是对风险变化的传染动态和行为反应的理论分析。我们获得了一个简单的条件，即何时公共卫生干预措施或疾病的变体会对风险补偿造成的感染率产生矛盾的影响。行为反应最有可能破坏严重疾病高峰附近的公共卫生干预措施。
Motivated by epidemics such as COVID-19, we study the spread of a contagious disease when behavior responds to the disease's prevalence. We extend the SIR epidemiological model to include endogenous meeting rates. Individuals benefit from economic activity, but activity involves interactions with potentially infected individuals. The main focus is a theoretical analysis of contagion dynamics and behavioral responses to changes in risk. We obtain a simple condition for when public-health interventions or variants of a disease will have paradoxical effects on infection rates due to risk compensation. Behavioral responses are most likely to undermine public-health interventions near the peak of severe diseases.
