论文标题
模拟媒体引起的恐惧调节在减轻锁骨后COVID-19大流行中的作用：印度的观点
Modelling the role of media induced fear conditioning in mitigating post-lockdown COVID-19 pandemic: perspectives on India
论文作者
论文摘要
几个成功地通过“锁定”来限制Covid-19的严重程度的国家正在考虑慢慢结束，这主要是由于巨大的社会经济副作用。锁定的突然结束可以增加基本的生殖数量并撤消一切；因此，需要精心设计的退出策略来维持其福利。为了研究恐惧条件在减轻锁骨后阶段的恐惧调节过程中的作用，在这项工作中，我们提出了一种年龄和社会接触结构，依赖于易感，恐惧，暴露，感染和恢复（SFEIR）模型（SFEIR）。通过大众媒体（例如，电视，社区广播，互联网和印刷媒体）的恐惧调节，模拟了印度人口的SFEIR模型，以及积极的加强，发现恐惧的人的一部分增加会导致感染人群的增长显着下降。本研究表明，在锁骨后阶段，媒体与学校结束诱发的恐惧调节大约一年可以作为重要的非药品干预措施，从而大大减轻印度这一大流行。拟议的SFEIR模型通过量化媒体在诱导恐惧条件方面的影响，这是社区驱动的国家在股后阶段的特定国家驱动变化的重要性。
Several countries that have been successful in constraining the severity of COVID-19 pandemic via "lockdown" are now considering to slowly end it, mainly because of enormous socio-economic side-effects. An abrupt ending of lockdown can increase the basic reproductive number and undo everything; therefore, carefully designed exit strategies are needed to sustain its benefits post upliftment. To study the role of fear conditioning on mitigating the spread of COVID-19 in post-lockdown phase, in this work, we propose an age- and social contact- structures dependent Susceptible, Feared, Exposed, Infected and Recovered (SFEIR) model. Simulating the SFEIR model on Indian population with fear conditioning via mass media (like, television, community radio, internet and print media) along with positive reinforcement, it is found that increase in fraction of feared people results in the significant decrease in the growth of infected population. The present study suggests that, during post-lockdown phase, media induced fear conditioning in conjunction with closure of schools for about one more year can serve as an important non-pharmaceutical intervention to substantially mitigate this pandemic in India. The proposed SFEIR model, by quantifying the influence of media in inducing fear conditioning, underlies the importance of community driven changes in country specific mitigation of COVID-19 spread in post-lockdown phase.
