论文标题
如何重新启动？基于代理的仿真模型，用于定义公共建筑中COVID-19“第二阶段”策略
How to restart? An agent-based simulation model towards the definition of strategies for COVID-19 "second phase" in public buildings
论文作者
论文摘要
在Covid-19紧急情况的“第二阶段”中重新启动公共建筑物活动应由操作措施支持，以避免第二次病毒扩散。由于与感染者的接触延长，托管相同用户不断存在的建筑物和时间/时间（例如，大型办公室，大学）在时间/时间（例如大型办公室，大学）的情况下是关键的情况。除了执行个人的风险降低策略（面罩）外，利益相关者还应促进其他策略，即居住者的负载限制（朝着“社会疏远”）和访问控制。模拟器可以支持措施有效性评估。这项工作提供了一个基于代理的模型，以估计封闭的建筑环境中的病毒扩散。该模型采用概率方法，根据国际卫生组织提出的基于接近和基于暴露时间的规则，共同模拟乘员的运动和病毒传播。可以根据建筑占用，缓解策略和与病毒相关的方面来定义方案。该模型在实验数据（“钻石公主”巡游）上进行了校准，然后应用于相关的案例研究（大学校园的一部分）。结果证明了模型功能。关于案例研究，采用面罩似乎是通过维持可接受的感染者的数量来减少每个初始情况下病毒传播的最重要策略。建筑能力限制可以通过可能从FFPK口罩转变为乘员使用手术口罩（从而改善用户的舒适性问题）来支持这种措施。提出了一个初步模型，以结合可接受的掩模过滤器 - 占领者的密度组合。可以修改该模型，以考虑其他公共建筑（例如旅游设施，文化建筑）中的其他经常性场景。
Restarting public buildings activities in the "second phase" of COVID-19 emergency should be supported by operational measures to avoid a second virus spreading. Buildings hosting the continuous presence of the same users and significant overcrowd conditions over space/time (e.g. large offices, universities) are critical scenarios due to the prolonged contact with infectors. Beside individual's risk-mitigation strategies performed (facial masks), stakeholders should promote additional strategies, i.e. occupants' load limitation (towards "social distancing") and access control. Simulators could support the measures effectiveness evaluation. This work provides an Agent-Based Model to estimate the virus spreading in the closed built environment. The model adopts a probabilistic approach to jointly simulate occupants' movement and virus transmission according to proximity-based and exposure-time-based rules proposed by international health organizations. Scenarios can be defined in terms of building occupancy, mitigation strategies and virus-related aspects. The model is calibrated on experimental data ("Diamond Princess" cruise) and then applied to a relevant case-study (a part of a university campus). Results demonstrate the model capabilities. Concerning the case-study, adopting facial masks seems to be a paramount strategy to reduce virus spreading in each initial condition, by maintaining an acceptable infected people's number. The building capacity limitation could support such measure by potentially moving from FFPk masks to surgical masks use by occupants (thus improving users' comfort issues). A preliminary model to combine acceptable mask filters-occupants' density combination is proposed. The model could be modified to consider other recurring scenarios in other public buildings (e.g. tourist facilities, cultural buildings).
