论文标题
COVID-19在莫斯科和俄罗斯地区的传播的数学建模
Mathematical Modeling of the Spread of COVID-19 in Moscow and Russian Regions
论文作者
论文摘要
为了模拟Covid-19冠状病毒在俄罗斯地区和莫斯科的传播，使用了一个分散的逻辑方程，描述了案例数量的增加。为了检查数学模型的充分性，将仿真结果与中国在许多欧洲和亚洲国家以及美国的冠状病毒的传播进行了比较。在间隔（01.03-08.04）中确定了俄罗斯，莫斯科和其他大区域的物流方程的参数。提出了对不同国家和地区的Covid-19感染人群的增长率的比较分析。考虑到莫斯科和俄罗斯地区Covid-19冠状病毒的传播的各种情况。对于每种情况，每日新病例的曲线和图表的增加，以增加病例总数的增加，并研究了感染的动态。峰值时间，流行时期，被感染的人数和他们的生长确定。
To model the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus in Russian regions and in Moscow, a discrete logistic equation describing the increase in the number of cases is used. To check the adequacy of the mathematical model, the simulation results were compared with the spread of coronavirus in China, in a number of European and Asian countries, and the United States. The parameters of the logistics equation for Russia, Moscow and other large regions were determined in the interval (01.03 - 08.04). A comparative analysis of growth rates of COVID-19 infected population for different countries and regions is presented. Various scenarios of the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus in Moscow and in the regions of Russia are considered. For each scenario, curves for the daily new cases and graphs for the increase in the total number of cases were obtained, and the dynamics of infection spread by day was studied. Peak times, epidemic periods, the number of infected people at the peak and their growth were determined.
