论文标题
Covid-19的未来在意大利：数学观点
Future of COVID-19 in Italy: A mathematical perspective
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一个SEIR隔室数学模型。这项研究的主要目的是分析和预测未来几个月意大利的大流行。已经计算了基本的繁殖数。根据本文目前的意大利局势，我们将估计该国大流行的可能时间。还讨论了锁定和快速隔离对大流行传播的影响。此外，我们研究了意大利最流行的四个地区。使用所提出的模型，已经对这些地区的大流行持续时间进行了预测。还检查了与模型敏感参数相对应的基本繁殖数的变化。
We have proposed an SEIR compartmental mathematical model. The prime objective of this study is to analyze and forecast the pandemic in Italy for the upcoming months. The basic reproduction number has been calculated. Based on the current situation in Italy, in this paper, we will estimate the possible time for the end of the pandemic in the country. The impact of lockdown and rapid isolation on the spread of the pandemic are also discussed. Further, we have studied four of the most pandemic affected regions in Italy. Using the proposed model, a prediction has been made about the duration of pandemic in these regions. The variation in the basic reproduction number corresponding to the sensitive parameters of the model is also examined.
