论文标题
一种从出生人数开始计算总生育率的新方法
A new method to calculate the Total Fertility Rate from the number of birth
论文作者
论文摘要
计算总生育率的标准方法需要可靠的年龄特异性生育率，包括出生数据和相关年龄特定的女性人口数据。从历史上看，通常没有根据母亲的年龄来计算出生的数量，因此很难通过标准方法估算历史总生育率。已经提出了许多经验方法，但它们的应用仅限于特定时期和地点。本文推论了一种新方法，用于计算从出生率和生育年龄的妇女人数中计算出的总生育率，可以应用于大多数情况下。相对误差通常小于5％。它更容易计算TFR，并且可以应用以获取历史记录的更多TFR。
The standard methods to calculate the Total Fertility Rate require the reliable age-specific fertility rate including birth data and the related age-specific women's population data. Historically, the number of births was often not counted according to the age of the mother, so it is difficult to estimate the historical total fertility rate with the standard methods. Many empirical methods have been proposed, but their application is limited to specific period and place. This paper deduces a new method for calculating the total fertility rate from the number of birth and the population of women at childbearing age, can be applied to most of cases. The relative error is usually less than 5%. It is easier to calculate TFR, and may be applied to obtain more TFRs for the history.
