论文标题

简单的公式,以实现两层策略来扁平曲线

Simple Formulas for a Two-Tier Strategy to Flatten the Curve

论文作者

Nikolaou, Michael

论文摘要

总结了一些基本事实,这些事实可以通过非药物干预措施(NPI)“使曲线变平”,并将其放置在Covid-19-19的当前情况下。为简单的两层NPI策略提供了分析公式,该策略为高风险群体提供了不同的社会距离目标。结果旨在促进快速的何种分析,而不是替换详细的模拟,这对于知情决策是必不可少的。注意到了所得公式中OFT被忽视的兰伯特功能的出现。

Some basic facts that enable or constrain efforts to "flatten the curve" by non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) are summarized and placed in the current context of the COVID-19 epidemic. Analytical formulas are presented for a simple two-tier NPI strategy that places different social distancing targets for high- and low-risk groups. The results aim to facilitate rapid what-if analysis rather than replace detailed simulation, which remains indispensable for informed decision making. The appearance of the oft neglected Lambert function in the resulting formulas is noted.

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