论文标题
在COVID-19的SEIR型模型中考虑有症状和无症状的症状和无症状。
Accounting for Symptomatic and Asymptomatic in a SEIR-type model of COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
开发了一个数学模型，描述了人群对COVID-19病毒的动态，因为感染可能是有症状的。使用有关法国，菲律宾，意大利，西班牙，英国，中国和美国等多个国家的确认案件和死亡的数据对该模型进行了校准。首先，我们得出了基本的复制编号，$ \ Mathcal {r} _0 $，并估计了每个国家的有效复制$ \ Mathcal {r} _ {\ rm eff} $。其次，我们对干预措施的优点感兴趣，无论是疏远还是通过治疗。结果表明，总和部分遏制可有效减少传播。但是，它的持续时间可能很长以消除该疾病（法国104天）。通过将干预的结束设置为达到医院容量的一天，数值模拟表明可以缩短持续时间（如果能力为1000名患者，法国只有39天）。此外，结果指出，在遏制后，有效的繁殖数仍然很大。因此，必须进行测试和隔离才能阻止疾病。
A mathematical model was developed describing the dynamic of the COVID-19 virus over a population considering that the infected can either be symptomatic or not. The model was calibrated using data on the confirmed cases and death from several countries like France, Philippines, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, China, and the USA. First, we derived the basic reproduction number, $\mathcal{R}_0$, and estimated the effective reproduction $\mathcal{R}_{\rm eff}$ for each country. Second, we were interested in the merits of interventions, either by distancing or by treatment. Results revealed that total and partial containment is effective in reducing the transmission. However, its duration may be long to eradicate the disease (104 days for France). By setting the end of intervention as the day when hospital capacity is reached, numerical simulations showed that the duration can be reduced (up to only 39 days for France if the capacity is 1000 patients). Further, results pointed out that the effective reproduction number remains large after containment. Therefore, testing and isolation are necessary to stop the disease.
