论文标题

用于资源共享的供应链决策模型,并应用于呼吸机分配以对抗Covid-19

A Model of Supply-Chain Decisions for Resource Sharing with an Application to Ventilator Allocation to Combat COVID-19

论文作者

Mehrotra, Sanjay, Rahimian, Hamed, Barah, Masoud, Luo, Fengqiao, Schantz, Karolina

论文摘要

本文提出了一个随机优化模型,用于分配和共享大流行的关键资源。对不同实体在不同时间达到顶峰的需求以及中央机构的初始库存将被分配。实体(州)可以在规避风险的情况下与不同状态共享关键资源。该模型用于研究美国国土安全部(FEMA)联邦紧急事务管理机构(FEMA)向美国不同州的联邦紧急事务管理机构在COVID-19大流行中的呼吸机库存分配。调查结果表明,如果少于60%的呼吸机库存可用于非covid-19患者,则FEMA的20,000名呼吸机(截至03/23/2020)的库存几乎足以满足预计需求。但是,如果必须保留超过75%的可用呼吸机库存,则预计会有各种程度的短缺。在一个极端情况下,假定需求集中在预测置信区间的最高几分位数中时,计划范围内的总短缺(直到05/31/20)约为28,500呼吸机,峰值短缺为04/12/20。结果还表明,在严重需求的情况下,纽约州需要7,600-9,200名Covid-19患者的额外呼吸机在其高峰需求中需要额外的呼吸机。但是,在纽约州的高峰需求消退后,可以将这些呼吸机的400至2,000个在不同的状态下。

This paper presents a stochastic optimization model for allocating and sharing a critical resource in the case of a pandemic. The demand for different entities peaks at different times, and an initial inventory from a central agency is to be allocated. The entities (states) may share the critical resource with a different state under a risk-averse condition. The model is applied to study the allocation of ventilator inventory in the COVID-19 pandemic by the Federal Emergency Management Agency of the US Department of Homeland Security (FEMA) to different states in the US. Findings suggest that if less than 60% of the ventilator inventory is available for non-COVID-19 patients, FEMA's stockpile of 20,000 ventilators (as of 03/23/2020) would be nearly adequate to meet the projected needs. However, when more than 75% of the available ventilator inventory must be reserved for non-COVID-19 patients, various degrees of shortfall are expected. In an extreme case, where the demand is assumed to be concentrated in the top-most quartile of the forecast confidence interval, the total shortfall over the planning horizon (till 05/31/20) is about 28,500 ventilator days, with a peak shortfall of 2,700 ventilators on 04/12/20. The results also suggest that in the worse-than-average to severe demand scenario cases, NY requires between 7,600-9,200 additional ventilators for COVID-19 patients during its peak demand. However, between 400 to 2,000 of these ventilators can be given to a different state after the peak demand in NY has subsided.

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