论文标题
SARS-COV-2感染动力学中的不同场景：适应的颂歌模型
Different scenarios in the Dynamics of SARS-Cov-2 Infection: an adapted ODE model
论文作者
论文摘要
Tian-Mu Chen等人最近开发并发布了一个数学模型，以计算武汉市在武汉市的可传播性，《贫困传染病》，2020年，https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-0249-0249-020-20-2020-00640-3。本文改进了该模型，以研究包括包含大流行作用的不同情况的影响，例如隔离和受感染和高危人群的隔离和隔离。在不同场景之间进行的比较表明，发现感染的进展很大程度上取决于每种情况下采取的措施。研究了巴西的特殊情况，与模型中包含的不同情况相比，在每种可能的情况下都暴露了感染的第一天动态。采用新感染和报告病例的相对演变来估计大流行日期。最后，估计每种情况的基本繁殖数R0值，范围为4.04至1.12。
A mathematical model to calculate the transmissibility of SARS-Cov-2 in Wuhan City was developed and published recently by Tian-Mu Chen et al., Infectious Diseases of Poverty, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3. This paper improves this model in order to study the effect of different scenarios that include actions to contain the pandemic, such as isolation and quarantine of infected and at-risk people. Comparisons made between the different scenarios show that the progress of the infection is found to strongly depend on measures taken in each case. The particular case of Brazil was studied, showing the dynamics of the first days of the infection in comparison with the different scenarios contained in the model and the reality of the Brazilian health system was exposed, in front of each possible scenario. The relative evolution of the number of new infection and reported cases was employed to estimate a containment date of the pandemic. Finally, the basic reproduction number R0 values were estimated for each scenario, ranging from 4.04 to 1.12.
