论文标题
通过智能夏普垃圾箱和机器学习预测可注射药物的依从性
Predicting Injectable Medication Adherence via a Smart Sharps Bin and Machine Learning
论文作者
论文摘要
药物不遵守是一个普遍存在的问题,影响了50%以上患有慢性病并且需要慢性治疗的人。不遵守会加剧健康的风险,并使治疗成本大大增加。为了应对这些挑战,已经确认了预测患者依从性的重要性。换句话说,重要的是要通过将资源优先级给最有可能不遵守的患者来提高当前医疗保健系统的干预效率。我们的这项工作的目标是在下一个预定的药物机会期间按时服用药物,对单个患者的行为做出预测。我们通过利用许多机器学习模型来做到这一点。特别是,我们演示了连接的物联网设备的使用;由HealthBeacon Ltd发明的“ Smart Sharps Bin”;监视和跟踪患者在家庭环境中的注射处置。使用从这些设备中收集的大量数据,培训和评估了五种机器学习模型,即额外的树木分类器,随机森林,XGBoost,梯度提升和多层感知,并在一个大型数据集中进行了培训和评估,其中包含165,223个历史注射式分配记录,这些记录是从3年的5,915个健康型单元中收集的。测试工作是在模型培训完成后的一段时间内(即真实的未来数据)对智能设备生成的实时数据进行的。提出的机器学习方法表明,在接收器操作特征曲线(ROC AUC)下表现出非常好的预测性能,为0.86。
Medication non-adherence is a widespread problem affecting over 50% of people who have chronic illness and need chronic treatment. Non-adherence exacerbates health risks and drives significant increases in treatment costs. In order to address these challenges, the importance of predicting patients' adherence has been recognised. In other words, it is important to improve the efficiency of interventions of the current healthcare system by prioritizing resources to the patients who are most likely to be non-adherent. Our objective in this work is to make predictions regarding individual patients' behaviour in terms of taking their medication on time during their next scheduled medication opportunity. We do this by leveraging a number of machine learning models. In particular, we demonstrate the use of a connected IoT device; a "Smart Sharps Bin", invented by HealthBeacon Ltd.; to monitor and track injection disposal of patients in their home environment. Using extensive data collected from these devices, five machine learning models, namely Extra Trees Classifier, Random Forest, XGBoost, Gradient Boosting and Multilayer Perception were trained and evaluated on a large dataset comprising 165,223 historic injection disposal records collected from 5,915 HealthBeacon units over the course of 3 years. The testing work was conducted on real-time data generated by the smart device over a time period after the model training was complete, i.e. true future data. The proposed machine learning approach demonstrated very good predictive performance exhibiting an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC AUC) of 0.86.