论文标题
意大利的Covid-19传染的修改后的SIR模型
A Modified SIR Model for the COVID-19 Contagion in Italy
论文作者
论文摘要
这项工作的目的是为理解意大利的Covid-19传染力做出贡献。为此，我们开发了一种经过修改的侵略感染的（SIR）模型，用于传染，并在2020年3月30日之前使用了大流行的官方数据来识别该模型的参数。我们方法的非标准部分是一个事实，即我们认为是模型参数，也是易感个体的初始数量，以及将检测到的阳性数量与实际（和未知）受感染个体数量的比例因素。识别传染，恢复和死亡率以及上述参数等于非凸识别问题，我们通过外循环中的二维网格搜索解决，并具有标准加权最小二乘优化问题作为内部步骤。
The purpose of this work is to give a contribution to the understanding of the COVID-19 contagion in Italy. To this end, we developed a modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the contagion, and we used official data of the pandemic up to March 30th, 2020 for identifying the parameters of this model. The non standard part of our approach resides in the fact that we considered as model parameters also the initial number of susceptible individuals, as well as the proportionality factor relating the detected number of positives with the actual (and unknown) number of infected individuals. Identifying the contagion, recovery and death rates as well as the mentioned parameters amounts to a non-convex identification problem that we solved by means of a two-dimensional grid search in the outer loop, with a standard weighted least-squares optimization problem as the inner step.
