论文标题
适用于国际战斗机交易的可分离和半参数网络计数流程
Separable and Semiparametric Network-based Counting Processes applied to the International Combat Aircraft Trades
论文作者
论文摘要
我们为纵向事件网络数据提出了一种新型的面向领域的模型。假定生成机制是一个多元泊松过程，该过程控制着具有两个独立强度函数的年度观察事件的开始和重复。我们将模型应用于1950年至2017年之间的国际战斗机交付数量获得的网络。根据修改后的贸易重力方法，我们确定了妨碍或减轻转移数量的经济和政治因素。广泛的动态和国家异质性需要半参数时间变化效果以及随机效应的规范。
We propose a novel tie-oriented model for longitudinal event network data. The generating mechanism is assumed to be a multivariate Poisson process that governs the onset and repetition of yearly observed events with two separate intensity functions. We apply the model to a network obtained from the number of international deliveries of combat aircraft trades between 1950 and 2017. Based on a modified trade gravity approach we identify economic and political factors impeding or lightening the number of transfers. Extensive dynamics as well as country heterogeneity require the specification of semiparametric time-varying effects as well as random effects.
