论文标题
COVID-19和经济影响的易感感染的（SIR）动态
Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Dynamics of COVID-19 and Economic Impact
论文作者
论文摘要
我估计了2019年冠状病毒疾病的易感感染（SIR）流行模型（Covid-19）。各国的传输速率是异质的，远远超过了回收率，这可以快速传播。在基准模型中，28％的人口可能同时在峰值上感染，这可能会使医疗系统压倒。在控制社会距离的时机和强度的最佳缓解政策下，峰值降低到6.2％。风格化的资产定价模型表明，在基准案例中，股票价格暂时降低50％，但在最佳政策下显示了W形，中等但更长的熊市。
I estimate the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The transmission rate is heterogeneous across countries and far exceeds the recovery rate, which enables a fast spread. In the benchmark model, 28% of the population may be simultaneously infected at the peak, potentially overwhelming the healthcare system. The peak reduces to 6.2% under the optimal mitigation policy that controls the timing and intensity of social distancing. A stylized asset pricing model suggests that the stock price temporarily decreases by 50% in the benchmark case but shows a W-shaped, moderate but longer bear market under the optimal policy.
