论文标题
Covid 19社区传播的SEIR模型中的管理策略
Management strategies in a SEIR model of COVID 19 community spread
论文作者
论文摘要
2019年新颖的电晕病毒感染（Covid 19）是国际关注焦点的持续公共卫生紧急情况。尽管（或可能是由于）爆发是前所未有的全球威胁，但我们对Covid 19流行病学，传输动力学，调查工具和管理的了解仍然存在很大的差距。从积极的一面来看，目前已经了解了有关允许数学预测模型的构建的流行过程。在我们的工作中，我们将传统的SEIR流行模型适应了Covid 19的特定动态隔室和流行参数，因为它在一个年龄差的社区中传播。我们分析了流行病学课程的管理策略（由于它们是通过在全球许多州和国家 /地区重新开放程序实施的）；但是，为了更清楚地说明思想，我们重点介绍了一个小型大学城社区的例子，纽约州引入了控制措施的时间表。我们在可持续性背景下产生预测，并评估这些控制措施（封闭，流动性限制，社会疏远）的效率。
The 2019 Novel Corona virus infection (COVID 19) is an ongoing public health emergency of international focus. Significant gaps persist in our knowledge of COVID 19 epidemiology, transmission dynamics, investigation tools and management, despite (or possibly because of) the fact that the outbreak is an unprecedented global threat. On the positive side, enough is currently known about the epidemic process to permit the construction of mathematical predictive models. In our work, we adapt a traditional SEIR epidemic model to the specific dynamic compartments and epidemic parameters of COVID 19, as it spreads in an age-heterogeneous community. We analyze management strategies of the epidemic course (as they were implemented through lockdown and reopening procedures in many of the US states and countries worldwide); however, to more clearly illustrate ideas, we focus on the example of a small scale college town community, with the timeline of control measures introduced in the state of New York. We generate predictions, and assess the efficiency of these control measures (closures, mobility restrictions, social distancing), in a sustainability context.
