论文标题
目前在智利或美国为Covid19隔离区是否合理？
Is a COVID19 Quarantine Justified in Chile or USA Right Now?
论文作者
论文摘要
在当前的Covid-19大流行期间，必须提前警告以降低死亡率。但是，当局和普通民众等非专家们面临着几个问题，以理解这一大流行的真实线索，并且在新闻界和社交媒体中，其风险的高估/高估是很普遍的。在这里，我们定义了一个指数，我们称之为Covid-19的负担指数，该指数与给定国家的医疗保健系统的能力有关，以治疗严重案件。如果医疗保健系统中没有额外的压力，它的值为0，当崩溃即将到来时达到1.0。截至2020年3月23日，我们表明智利，美国，英国等国家必须降低感染率，否则，在不到7天的时间内，他们可能处于意大利，西班牙和伊朗等灾难性状况。
During the current COVID-19 pandemic it is imperative to give early warnings to reduce mortality. However, non-specialist such as authorities and the general population face several problems to understand the real thread of this pandemic, and under/overestimation of its risk are a commonplace in the press and social media. Here we define an index, which we call the COVID-19 Burden Index, that relates the capacities of the healthcare system of a given country to treat severe and critical cases. Its value is 0 if there is no extra strain in the healthcare system, and it reaches 1.0 when the collapse is imminent. As of 23 March 2020, we show that Chile, the USA, UK, among other countries, must reduce the rate of infections right now, otherwise, in less than 7 days they could be in a catastrophic situation such as Italy, Spain and Iran.
