论文标题
使用简单模型了解电晕病毒传播的命运
Understanding the fate of corona virus transmission using a simple model
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一个简单的模型，以理解电晕病毒传播的动力学。我们的模型假设，如果没有足够保护的人与携带电晕病毒的人接触，则只有一种没有足够保护的人就可以从一种到另一个变化。因此，该病毒通过此类事件的链条在短时间内大规模扩散。使用我们的模型，我们提供了在合理的时间内受到该病毒影响的人数的估计。我们通过实时数据的非线性最小平方拟合选择了模型的不同参数的值，我们可以使用模型预测该电晕病毒传播的命运。
We propose a simple model for understanding the kinetics of corona virus transmission. Our model assume spreading of corona virus can happen from one to another only, if someone without enough protection comes close contact to a person carrying the corona virus. Therefore this virus spreads on a large scale within a short time through chains of such events. Using our model we provide an estimation of the number of people affected by this virus within reasonable duration of time. We choose values of different parameters of our model by non-linear least square fit of the real time data and we predict fate of this corona virus transmission using our model.
