论文标题
COVID-19攻击率随城市规模而增加
COVID-19 attack rate increases with city size
论文作者
论文摘要
2019年新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）目前的爆发对相互联系的人类社会构成了前所未有的全球健康和经济威胁。在开发疫苗之前，控制爆发的策略取决于积极的社会疏远。这些衡量标准在很大程度上断开了人类社会的社交网络结构，尤其是在城市地区。在这里，我们估计了3月14日至3月19日，美国城市Covid-19的增长率和生殖数量，以揭示与城市人口规模的幂律规模关系。这意味着，在较大的城市中，Covid-19的平均蔓延速度更快，这一额外的暗示是，在不受控制的爆发中，预计较大的人口将在人口更大的城市地区感染。我们讨论了这些观察对控制Covid-19爆发的含义，强调需要在较大的城市实施更具侵略性的距离政策，同时也保留社会经济活动。
The current outbreak of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses an unprecedented global health and economic threat to interconnected human societies. Until a vaccine is developed, strategies for controlling the outbreak rely on aggressive social distancing. These measures largely disconnect the social network fabric of human societies, especially in urban areas. Here, we estimate the growth rates and reproductive numbers of COVID-19 in US cities from March 14th through March 19th to reveal a power-law scaling relationship to city population size. This means that COVID-19 is spreading faster on average in larger cities with the additional implication that, in an uncontrolled outbreak, larger fractions of the population are expected to become infected in more populous urban areas. We discuss the implications of these observations for controlling the COVID-19 outbreak, emphasizing the need to implement more aggressive distancing policies in larger cities while also preserving socioeconomic activity.
