论文标题
通过合并的SARS-COV-2测试策略来提高测试效率
Boosting test-efficiency by pooled testing strategies for SARS-CoV-2
论文作者
论文摘要
在当前的Covid19危机中，许多国家医疗保健系统面临着确认SARS-COV-2感染的严重测试。对于人群中的总体感染水平较低，样品的集合可以大大扩大测试效率。在这里，我们提出了一个公式，以估算最佳的合并大小，效率增长（每次测试的测试人员）以及汇总测试中丢失的感染的预期上限，这都是范围内的感染水平的函数以及当前使用的PCR测试的假阴性/正率。假设感染水平为0.1％，虚假负率为2％，最佳池大小约为32，则每次测试的效率增益约为15个测试人员。对于1％的感染水平，最佳池尺寸为11，效率增益为每次测试的5.1个测试人员。对于10％的感染水平，最佳池尺寸减少到约4个，每次测试的效率增长约为1.7个测试人员。对于30％及以上的感染水平，合并不再受益。要查看合并测试的重复程度在多大程度上改善了最大感染数量的估计，我们介绍了1、3和5重复的所有结果。
In the current COVID19 crisis many national healthcare systems are confronted with an acute shortage of tests for confirming SARS-CoV-2 infections. For low overall infection levels in the population, pooling of samples can drastically amplify the testing efficiency. Here we present a formula to estimate the optimal pooling size, the efficiency gain (tested persons per test), and the expected upper bound of missed infections in the pooled testing, all as a function of the populationwide infection levels and the false negative/positive rates of the currently used PCR tests. Assuming an infection level of 0.1 % and a false negative rate of 2 %, the optimal pool size is about 32, the efficiency gain is about 15 tested persons per test. For an infection level of 1 % the optimal pool size is 11, the efficiency gain is 5.1 tested persons per test. For an infection level of 10 % the optimal pool size reduces to about 4, the efficiency gain is about 1.7 tested persons per test. For infection levels of 30 % and higher there is no more benefit from pooling. To see to what extent replicates of the pooled tests improve the estimate of the maximal number of missed infections, we present all results for 1, 3, and 5 replicates.
