论文标题
使用两步模型的Covid-19在丹麦流行病的基本繁殖数量的估计
Estimation of Basic Reproduction Number of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Denmark using a Two-Step Model
论文作者
论文摘要
目的：对政府干预引起的基本繁殖次数（BRN）进行早期估计，并在丹麦环境中预测住院患者，ICU患者和累积死亡人数的日常数量。 方法：我们使用了具有不同基本繁殖数量的Kermack和McKendrick模型来估计被感染的数量和年龄分层的百分比来估计患者，ICU患者和累积死亡人数。基本繁殖数的变化是根据当前的住院数量估算的。 结果：发现2月27日至3月18日的基本生殖数量为2.65，但是，该数字在3月18日之后降至1.99。 关键词：Covid-19，基本复制号，丹麦人口
Objective: To conduct an early estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number (BRN) induced by government interference, and to project resulting day to day number of in-patients, ICU-patients and cumulative number of deaths in a Danish setting. Method: We used the Kermack and McKendrick model with varying basic reproduction number to estimate number infected and age stratified percentages to estimate number of in-patients, ICU-patients and cumulative number of deaths. Changes in basic reproduction number was estimated based on current in-patient numbers. Results: The basic reproductive number in the time period of February 27th to March 18th was found to be 2.65, however, this number was reduced to 1.99 after March 18th. Keywords: COVID-19, basic reproduction number, Danish population
