论文标题
通过评级和贝叶斯网络调查亚洲障碍足球博彩市场的效率
Investigating the efficiency of the Asian handicap football betting market with ratings and Bayesian networks
论文作者
论文摘要
尽管亚洲障碍（AH）足球（足球）博彩市场广泛流行，但相关文献尚未对其效率进行充分的研究。本文将评分系统与贝叶斯网络相结合，并介绍了专门为预测和评估AH投注市场效率而开发的第一个发布的模型。结果基于13个英超联赛赛季，并将其与传统市场进行比较，而传统市场是赢得，输或吸引的赌注。已经检查了不同的投注情况，包括a）平均和最大（最佳）市场赔率，b）预测和已发表的赔率之间的所有可能的投注决策阈值，c）对回报率投资和利润的优化以及d）简单的危险调整，以调整收益的差异在靶向传统和AH AH AH AH AH SARMES中的收益方差如何变化。尽管发现AH市场具有传统市场的低效率，但研究结果揭示了有趣的差异以及两者之间的相似性。
Despite the massive popularity of the Asian Handicap (AH) football (soccer) betting market, its efficiency has not been adequately studied by the relevant literature. This paper combines rating systems with Bayesian networks and presents the first published model specifically developed for prediction and assessment of the efficiency of the AH betting market. The results are based on 13 English Premier League seasons and are compared to the traditional market, where the bets are for win, lose or draw. Different betting situations have been examined including a) both average and maximum (best available) market odds, b) all possible betting decision thresholds between predicted and published odds, c) optimisations for both return-on-investment and profit, and d) simple stake adjustments to investigate how the variance of returns changes when targeting equivalent profit in both traditional and AH markets. While the AH market is found to share the inefficiencies of the traditional market, the findings reveal both interesting differences as well as similarities between the two.
