论文标题

对智能本地能源系统的系统影响的早期见解

Early Insights into System Impacts of Smart Local Energy Systems

论文作者

Aunedi, Marko, Green, Tim

论文摘要

当智能本地能源系统(SLE)部署时,全系统,投资优化模型已用于检查满足电力需求的总成本的变化。我们的假设是,SLE与其他功能一起通过需求侧响应(DSR)增强了电力消耗的灵活性,并促进了使用本地能量存储。我们发现,随着SLE的灵活性,可变可再生能源(例如海上风能)可以取代公司,但更昂贵的低碳源(例如CCS)。考虑到2030年的100 GCO2/kWh排放目标,SLE的10%渗透可以将总成本降低12亿英镑/年,而不是SLE,而较高的渗透率为50%SLE,储蓄增加了两倍至28亿英镑/年。在2040年的25 GCO2/kWh限额下,储蓄率上升至29亿英镑/年,10%SLE的吸收,并以50%的吸收率上升至87亿英镑/年。这些结果可以使DSR的成本低于100英镑/kW,而且直到不太可能的5,000英镑/千瓦才能储蓄。即使2040年在2040年预计降低了风的降低,替代CC的风能仍然可以节省大量。 SLE提供的灵活性节省的成本会受到通过其他方式实现国内DSR的影响。 2040年,非SLES DSR的吸收水平20%仍然使SLES可以以50%的渗透率创造68亿英镑/年的成本(从87亿英镑/年下降20%)。

A whole-system, investment-optimising model has been used to examine the change in total cost of meeting demand for electricity when Smart Local Energy Systems (SLES) are deployed. Our assumption is that SLES, alongside their other features, enhance the flexibility of electricity consumption through demand-side response (DSR) and facilitate use of local energy storage. We find that with the flexibility of SLES present, variable renewables such as offshore wind can displace firm but more expensive low-carbon sources such as CCS. Considering a 100 gCO2/kWh emissions target in 2030, a 10% penetration of SLES could reduce total costs by £1.2bn/year relative to no SLES, while at higher penetration of 50% SLES, savings increase twofold to £2.8bn/year. Under a more stringent emissions limit of 25 gCO2/kWh in 2040, the savings rise to £2.9bn/year for 10% SLES uptake and rise threefold to £8.7bn/year at 50% uptake. These results hold for costs of enabling DSR of less than £100/kW and it is not until an unlikely £5,000/kW that the savings are nullified. The savings from substituting wind for CCS remain substantial even if the anticipated reduction of cost of wind in 2040 does not materialise. Cost savings from the flexibility provided by SLES are affected by realisation of domestic DSR through other means. A 20% uptake level of non-SLES DSR in 2040 still allows SLES to create cost savings of £6.8bn/year at 50% penetration (a 20% fall from £8.7bn/year).

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