论文标题
可以根据每日测试报告控制Covid-19-19的流行病吗？
Can the COVID-19 epidemic be controlled on the basis of daily test reports?
论文作者
论文摘要
本文研究了如果签名结果，主动案件和总案件的日常报告，可以通过当局对公共卫生措施做出决定的当局来控制Covid-19的流行。得出了适当简化的过程模型，以支持可控性分析，突出显示了非常明显的时间延迟。该模型已通过多次爆发的数据验证。分析表明，如果足够强大并尽早制定抑制策略，则可以有效。它还显示了由于延迟，不稳定动态和反馈回路的不确定性的结合，缓解策略如何失败；基于线性控制限制理论的近似条件被给出，以使反馈控制是可行的。
This paper studies if and to which extent COVID-19 epidemics can be controlled by authorities taking decisions on public health measures on the basis of daily reports of swab test results, active cases and total cases. A suitably simplified process model is derived to support the controllability analysis, highlighting the presence of very significant time delay; the model is validated with data from several outbreaks. The analysis shows that suppression strategies can be effective if strong enough and enacted early on. It also shows how mitigation strategies can fail because of the combination of delay, unstable dynamics, and uncertainty in the feedback loop; approximate conditions based on the theory of limitation of linear control are given for feedback control to be feasible.
