论文标题
COVID-19爆发的广义逻辑增长建模：比较中国和世界其他地区的29个省份的动态
Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak: comparing the dynamics in the 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world
论文作者
论文摘要
Covid-19始于中国武汉，一直在世界各地传播。我们校准了逻辑增长模型，广义的逻辑增长模型，广义的理查德模型和广义增长模型，以报道的整个中国受感染病例的数量，中国的29个省以及33个国家和地区正在发生重大暴发的国家和地区。我们剖析了中国流行病的发展，以及在总体和每个省内的剧烈控制措施的影响。我们对中国疫情爆发的四个阶段进行了定量的记录，并对各省的异质情况进行了详细的分析。中国实施的极端遏制措施非常有效，并且在各省之间有一些启发性的差异。从中国的经验中借用，我们就其他国家的疫情发展进行了预测。我们确定，在14个国家（主要是在西欧）中发生的疫情已经结束，而其中一些国家的复苏已经确定。与中国的大多数省份相比，在西方国家的大多数省份，峰值轨迹的特征是衰减速度要快得多。我们确定了三组国家的爆发进展水平，并为当前的全球大流行提供了信息的影响。
Started in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 has been spreading all over the world. We calibrate the logistic growth model, the generalized logistic growth model, the generalized Richards model and the generalized growth model to the reported number of infected cases for the whole of China, 29 provinces in China, and 33 countries and regions that have been or are undergoing major outbreaks. We dissect the development of the epidemics in China and the impact of the drastic control measures both at the aggregate level and within each province. We quantitatively document four phases of the outbreak in China with a detailed analysis on the heterogeneous situations across provinces. The extreme containment measures implemented by China were very effective with some instructive variations across provinces. Borrowing from the experience of China, we made scenario projections on the development of the outbreak in other countries. We identified that outbreaks in 14 countries (mostly in western Europe) have ended, while resurgences of cases have been identified in several among them. The modeling results clearly show longer after-peak trajectories in western countries, in contrast to most provinces in China where the after-peak trajectory is characterized by a much faster decay. We identified three groups of countries in different level of outbreak progress, and provide informative implications for the current global pandemic.
