论文标题
冠状病毒疾病的预测和分析2019
Prediction and analysis of Coronavirus Disease 2019
论文作者
论文摘要
2019年12月，在中国武汉的海鲜批发市场中发现了一种新颖的冠状病毒。他正式将此冠状病毒命名为Covid-19。自2019年12月12日入院以来，中国报告总共有78,824例CORNID-19病例和2,788例死亡。截至2020年2月28日，库汉的累积案件和死亡造成了61.1％和76.5％的死亡，使整个中国内陆中心中的中心占据了优先级别的中心和对照中心。同时，截至2020年2月28日，中国以外的51个国家和地区已有4,879例确认的病例和79例死亡。Covid-19-19s流行病对人们的日常生活和国家的经济发展造成了巨大伤害。本文采用了三种数学模型，即逻辑模型，Bertalanffy模型和Gompertz模型。首先对SAR的流行趋势进行了拟合和分析，以证明现有数学模型的有效性。然后将结果用于适合和分析Covid-19的状况。对于不同的参数和不同区域，三个不同数学模型的预测结果不同。通常，在本文研究的三个模型中，逻辑模型的拟合效果可能是最好的，而Gompertz模型的拟合效果可能比Bertalanffy模型更好。根据当前趋势，根据三种模型，预计被感染的人数为武汉的49852-57447，在非耐心地区为12972-13405，中国分别为80261-85140。武汉的总死亡人数为2502-5108，在非休ube地区为107-125，中国的死亡人数为3150-6286。 1920年晚些时候，武汉和2020年3月下旬，在其他地区，Covid-19将于2020年下半年和p超过P。
In December 2019, a novel coronavirus was found in a seafood wholesale market in Wuhan, China. WHO officially named this coronavirus as COVID-19. Since the first patient was hospitalized on December 12, 2019, China has reported a total of 78,824 confirmed CONID-19 cases and 2,788 deaths as of February 28, 2020. Wuhan's cumulative confirmed cases and deaths accounted for 61.1% and 76.5% of the whole China mainland , making it the priority center for epidemic prevention and control. Meanwhile, 51 countries and regions outside China have reported 4,879 confirmed cases and 79 deaths as of February 28, 2020. COVID-19 epidemic does great harm to people's daily life and country's economic development. This paper adopts three kinds of mathematical models, i.e., Logistic model, Bertalanffy model and Gompertz model. The epidemic trends of SARS were first fitted and analyzed in order to prove the validity of the existing mathematical models. The results were then used to fit and analyze the situation of COVID-19. The prediction results of three different mathematical models are different for different parameters and in different regions. In general, the fitting effect of Logistic model may be the best among the three models studied in this paper, while the fitting effect of Gompertz model may be better than Bertalanffy model. According to the current trend, based on the three models, the total number of people expected to be infected is 49852-57447 in Wuhan,12972-13405 in non-Hubei areas and 80261-85140 in China respectively. The total death toll is 2502-5108 in Wuhan, 107-125 in Non-Hubei areas and 3150-6286 in China respetively. COVID-19 will be over p robably in late-April, 2020 in Wuhan and before late-March, 2020 in other areas respectively.
