论文标题
关于世界经济结构：吸收马尔可夫链方法
On the structure of the world economy: An absorbing Markov chain approach
论文作者
论文摘要
全球生产网络的扩展提出了许多有关国家之间相互依存的重要问题，以及世界经济中未来的变化如何影响国家在全球价值链中的地位。从完全不同的角度来看，我们正在接近价值链的结构和长度。通过将一个随机的内生变量分配给表示吸收前中间销售/购买数量的网络链接（最终使用或增值），此处提出的离散时间吸收马尔可夫链为世界提供了新的灯光。该变量的差异可以帮助评估构成链长度并优化生产水平时的风险。与仅在比较优势的基础上可能预期的相反，结果表明，输入链和输出链都表现出相同的准平台产品分布。换句话说，在吸收网络类型的变化之前，在一个州所花费的时间的预期比例是不变的。最后，这里提出的几个全球指标，包括全球增值/最终产出的概率分布，在估计世界贸易体系的弹性并预测宏观经济发展时为政策制定者提供指导。
The expansion of global production networks has raised many important questions about the interdependence among countries and how future changes in the world economy are likely to affect the countries' positioning in global value chains. We are approaching the structure and lengths of value chains from a completely different perspective than has been available so far. By assigning a random endogenous variable to a network linkage representing the number of intermediate sales/purchases before absorption (final use or value added), the discrete-time absorbing Markov chains proposed here shed new light on the world input/output networks. The variance of this variable can help assess the risk when shaping the chain length and optimize the level of production. Contrary to what might be expected simply on the basis of comparative advantage, the results reveal that both the input and output chains exhibit the same quasi-stationary product distribution. Put differently, the expected proportion of time spent in a state before absorption is invariant to changes of the network type. Finally, the several global metrics proposed here, including the probability distribution of global value added/final output, provide guidance for policy makers when estimating the resilience of world trading system and forecasting the macroeconomic developments.
